-20% Drop Coming? Analyzing Top Stocks in ULTY for Signs of a Pullback
Since April, ULTY’s NAV has held steady thanks to a few explosive stocks. With the help of technical analysis, their charts can reveal what could happen next to the ETF.
With markets at all-time highs, and investor sentiment equally as bullish, it’s always healthy to take a look in the opposite direction for a reality check.
Today’s analysis focuses on the top eight underlying stocks in ULTY 0.00%↑ , including MSTR 0.00%↑, HOOD 0.00%↑, and OKLO 0.00%↑. In aggregate these Top 8 account for 40% of the fund’s value and play and active role in the ETF’s daily performance (price and premium capture).
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Technical Analysis: Half art, half science
Trying to time the market can be a fool’s errand but having a general sense of direction can help with risk mitigation. I like to use technical analysis, especially on the underlying, as one of several tools in the toolkit to paint a full picture.
Note: Technical Analysis on UTLY itself (or similar ETFs) is much less relevant given how dependent it is on the underlying and how much price action is muted due to the options strategy.
Technical Analysis Basics
We’ll use 2 basic indicators which can provide a foundational level of analysis:
RSI: Momentum indicator where a value of 30 or less is oversold and 70+ is overbought.
Support & Resistance: Price indicators where buying pressure (support) or selling pressure (resistance) is expected.
The charts embedded in this post may looks like a hot mess at first glance. I’ve marked up each with a few elements:
Blue lines = Support (if below current price); Resistance (if above current price)
Gray boxes = Support & resistance zones (stocks rarely trade to an exact penny)
Red boxes = Performance ranges between price levels
Pink line = Approximate cost basis for ULTY’s position in the stock
Underlying Performance Summary
Is it fair to say that “every” stock in the stock market has gone up since April? Yes. But it’s also worth calling out that the team at YieldMax did a great job picking some high flyers that have soared +63% while contributing to a stable NAV and maximum premium capture.
However, the reality is that many of them are overbought and need to pullback for healthy consolidation before they can continue higher in the months or years ahead. Remember, stocks can’t only go up in a straight line — and if the market pulls back, ULTY will too.
The Top 8 Stocks in ULTY (by weight):
HOOD 0.00%↑ (5.47%)
ASTS 0.00%↑ (5.25%)
MSTR 0.00%↑ (5.17%)
OKLO 0.00%↑ (5.10%)
UPST 0.00%↑ (4.90%)
RDDT 0.00%↑ (4.89%)
SMR 0.00%↑ (4.46%)
PLTR 0.00%↑ (4.36%)
Overall Trends:
4 stocks have overbought daily RSI, with 5 stocks overbought on the monthly time frame too.
4 stocks are in blue sky breakout with not resistance looming above.
7 stocks ran over 100% since April, with 2 of them achieving 300%+ growth.
Most stocks could pull back -25% to -30% before hitting meaningful support levels.
The ULTY cost basis for most stocks is at or below key levels of support (excl. RDDT & SMR)
Key Takeaway:
Whether it’s next week or next month, and regardless of the overall market trends, a majority of the top holdings in ULTY need to pullback. This can help RSIs to cool off and then provide a runway for continued growth.
What does this mean for ULTY? It would pull back too and investors need to have a plan — especially those who are using margin. For some, that will mean setting up stop losses with a goal to buy back lower. For others, that might be just holding while collecting distributions, and/or strategically averaging down.
Thought exercise: The underlying stocks pull back -25%
Assume ULTY’s protective puts help hedge 3-5 percentage points of that pullback (result: -22 to -20%).
Assume the implied beta vs the underlying basket is 60% (result: -15%) — based on average of past weeks.
Theoretically, the ETF could drop -15% to -20%. Based on Friday’s closing price, a drop of that size would would put the ETF in the $5.40-$5.20 range — near the low of early April.
We have yet to see how the “new ULTY” (post-April pivot) performs during a market pullback, so many factors are unknown and the math above is a guesstimate. YieldMax has also filed for a new ETF (dubbed “SLTY”), which is a short version of ULTY. The ETF would gain short exposure to underlying stocks and run options strategies to capture premium. It doesn’t need to hold the same stocks as ULTY. Ideal timing if you ask me.
Keep reading below to dig into each individual stock’s charts. I’ve added the data, technical indicators, and commentary.
Underlying Stock Technical Analysis
Except for RSI, one could argue this chart actually looks healthy. The stock pulled back after reaching $45.27, then blew past into new all-time highs. On a major pullback the main concern could be ULTY flipping from unrealized gains to losses — and YieldMax would have to decide to hold or sell.
RSI (Daily | Wk | Mo): 74 | 78 | 75
Resistance: N/A (blue sky breakout)
Pullback guesstimate: -30% to -35% ($35-$32 range)
ULTY Cost Basis (Est): $38.75
Very similar looking to the SMR chart, but has yet to break out to new all-time highs — that could be in the cards depending on the overall market. Cost basis is fairly safe, below the major support at $50.08.
RSI (Daily | Wk | Mo): 68 | 71 | 77
Resistance: Prior all-time high ($73.55)
Pullback guesstimate: -20% to -28% ($56-50 range)
ULTY Cost Basis (Est): $38.75
This chart is screaming hot and I must preach again: stocks can’t go up in a straight line for ever. RSI is over 80 on the key timeframes. It’s likely when a pullback happens it could be fast and steep — and this is currently the highest weighted holding in ULTY.
RSI (Daily | Wk | Mo): 80 | 83 | 86
Resistance: N/A (blue sky breakout)
Pullback guesstimate: -40% ($70-65 range)
ULTY Cost Basis (Est): $68.99
Similar trend to SMR, but once again begs the question if it will defy any broader market pullback or drop alongside. At least in this case, the cost basis is near a major support line.
RSI (Daily | Wk | Mo): 77 | 76 | 82
Resistance: N/A (blue sky breakout)
Pullback guesstimate: -25% ($40 range)
ULTY Cost Basis (Est): $68.99
Deviates from some of the others since it never reached new all-time highs after the the April lows. Currently range bound between $81.48 and $68.05, which could be a nice consolidation range, but the direction of the broader market could propel a break in either direction.
RSI (Daily | Wk | Mo): 72 | 66 | 60
Resistance: $81.48, then all-time high
Pullback guesstimate: -28% ($57 range); potentially -13% ($68)
ULTY Cost Basis (Est): $58.17
It’s been a nonstop grind up since April, where any pullbacks were just a couple days (which deviates from others like SMR or OLKA). This doesn’t necessarily bode well in terms of setting up meaningful support zones until you get back to the $120s.
RSI (Daily | Wk | Mo): 67 | 71 | 95
Resistance: N/A (blue sky breakout)
Pullback guesstimate: -22% ($119 range); potentially -30% ($105)
ULTY Cost Basis (Est): $106.08
Reddit faces an uphill battle — anyone that bought and held from December 2025 to March 2026 is still at a loss. If the stock continues up, there could be continued selling pressure from those investors who just want to break even and get out. There’s also less cushion before dropping past ULTY’s cost basis.
RSI (Daily | Wk | Mo): 60 | 57 | 66
Resistance: $164.55
Pullback guesstimate: -15% ($126 range); potentially -35% ($96)
ULTY Cost Basis (Est): $139.90
We all know Strategy is tied to Bitcoin, which adds even more volatility and unpredictability — but there’s been a bit more deviation lately. In terms of RSI, MSTR isn’t as hot as other underlying stocks and it will be important to see if it can hold $423, which is a former support zone.
RSI (Daily | Wk | Mo): 55 | 64 | 69
Resistance: $456.66
Pullback guesstimate: -15% ($359 range)
ULTY Cost Basis (Est): $303.28
Just discovered you on Reddit and appreciate the constant work. My next ULTY payout I'll be upgrading! 💪🏾
Hey - Love that you're producing some great data for the community - QQ: it seem that given the NAV is primarily dependent on underlying stock holdings (+/-) price appreciation + option premium and option premium is driven by IV that you'd be tracking the basket weighted IV (and ongoing delta of IV to prior days). That would give you a better sense of where the NAV is headed. Maybe you're tracking this and I just don't see it because I'm thick as a whale sandwich ;-)